A heat pump runs for far less than electric baseboard in Massachusetts, and that part is settled. Against a gas furnace, the answer turns on one number: what your utility charges per unit of gas. Electricity here averages 30.14 cents per kWh, which is high, so the heat pump has to earn its keep through efficiency. The sections below show where the break-even sits and what moves it.
The short answer for Massachusetts
Among the systems that can be priced from published residential rates, the heat pump is the cheapest to run here. A million Btu of heat delivered to the house costs $37.21 with a heat pump at 8.1 HSPF2 (seasonal COP about 2.4), against $88.34 with electric resistance baseboard. That is $51.13 less per million Btu. These costs are computed from average residential prices published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), ENERGY STAR efficiency levels, and EIA energy conversions.
Natural gas is the missing piece. Gas rates differ by utility and shift with the season, so the price has to come from your latest bill or your utility’s current rate sheet.
Two limits apply. This is running cost on the same unit of delivered heat, so it is not a yearly bill, which depends on the size, insulation and air leakage of the house. It is also not the price of the equipment or the installation, which is a separate comparison. Switching from electric resistance to a heat pump cuts running cost by $51.13 per million Btu.
What each option costs to run in Massachusetts
| System | Efficiency used | Cost per million Btu delivered |
|---|---|---|
| Electric resistance (baseboard) | 100% efficient | $88.34 |
| Heat pump | 8.1 HSPF2 (seasonal COP about 2.4) | $37.21 |
Both rows rest on the same electricity price: 30.14 cents per kWh, the average residential price year-to-date through July 2026, from the EIA’s Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.B. It is a statewide average. Utilities and rate plans differ, so use it to compare fuels and to estimate, never as your own bill. One kWh carries 3,412 Btu, the EIA conversion behind the baseboard row.
Gas is left out of the table because its price depends on your utility. When you have it, a cubic foot of natural gas holds about 1,037 Btu (also an EIA conversion), which lets you turn a bill quoted by volume into a price per million Btu.
Efficiency matters as much as the fuel price because a heat pump moves heat instead of making it. Baseboard turns each kWh into exactly 3,412 Btu. A heat pump at a seasonal COP of about 2.4 turns the same kWh into roughly 2.4 times as much heat. That ratio is why electricity at 30.14 cents still produces heat at less than half the baseboard cost. A gas furnace plays the same game from the other side: its fuel is priced differently, and its efficiency rating decides how much of each Btu reaches the rooms.
The $37.21 uses 8.1 HSPF2, the ENERGY STAR minimum for ducted split systems and single-package units. ENERGY STAR asks 8.5 HSPF2 of non-ducted (ductless) systems for the same label, because they have no duct losses to start with and must perform better to earn it. Both need at least 15.2 SEER2, but SEER2 rates cooling and HSPF2 rates heating. These are minimums to earn the label, not typical values. For more on reading the rating, see What HSPF2 Measures, and Why Ductless Asks for More. Price heat per million Btu delivered, and compare HSPF2 with HSPF2 when you shop.
How cold it gets, and what that does to a heat pump
Boston Logan averages about 5,545 heating degree days a year (base 65°F), according to NOAA’s 1991-2020 climate normals. The count adds up, for every day, how far the mean temperature sat below 65°F. Twice the degree days means roughly twice the fuel for the same house, so this number is what turns a climate into a bill. It describes a long heating season, with a lot of cool and cold days stacked across the year.
The mean daily minimum of the coldest month at the same station is 23.1°F. That is an average low, so some nights run colder. And Boston is one reference city. Inland towns and higher ground in the state can run colder than the coast.
The heat pump’s $37.21 uses a seasonal efficiency, about 2.4 at 8.1 HSPF2. It blends mild fall and spring days, where the machine runs comfortably, with deep-cold stretches, where its efficiency drops. On the coldest nights a backup carries the load: resistance strips inside the unit, or a furnace in a dual-fuel setup. Every hour on resistance strips is priced like the baseboard row, $88.34 per million Btu. So a house that leans on its backup a lot will land above the seasonal figure, and a well-insulated one will land closer to it.
That is why equipment choice and house condition matter as much as the headline number. Cold-climate heat pumps are built to hold their output longer as it gets colder, and a tighter house asks for less heat on the worst nights. For a closer look at how output falls with temperature, read How Cold Is Too Cold for a Heat Pump. Judge a heat pump on its seasonal average, and plan the backup for the coldest nights.
What homes in Massachusetts already heat with
The EIA’s 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) shows what is installed in Massachusetts homes. By equipment, 55% run a furnace, 26% a steam or hot-water boiler, and 2% a central heat pump. By fuel, 53% use natural gas, 17% electricity, 24% fuel oil or kerosene, and 3% propane. These are state shares from a national survey, not a count for your town. They show what was put in, which tells you what was cheap when the houses were built, and they are not a recommendation. The two lists overlap, so they should not be added together.
For the gas-furnace question, the 53% on natural gas is the group where the comparison above applies directly. A house with no gas line has no furnace to compare against. It likely heats with oil, propane or electricity, so the useful comparison is the heat pump against what you actually pay for that fuel. The 24% on oil or kerosene are the homes where that swap deserves a close look, since you can price a million Btu from your delivery receipts the same way you would from a gas bill.
Boiler homes are a different conversion. About a quarter of the state’s homes have radiators or baseboard hot water, so no ducts exist to carry warm air. Options include ductless units mounted in rooms or adding ductwork, and the decision between them is covered in Ductless or Central. A broader look at the local picture is in Heating a Home in Massachusetts. Start from the fuel and distribution system you already have, because that sets which comparison is the real one.
When the other choice wins
The heat pump is the cheaper system to run against electric resistance, and it may or may not beat gas on your bill. A few situations favor keeping or choosing a furnace anyway. The first is a low gas rate.
The second is an old furnace with years left. Running cost is only part of the decision, and a working furnace you already own costs nothing to install. When it starts failing, the repair-or-replace math changes, and Repairing a Furnace or Replacing It walks through that call.
The third is a dual-fuel setup. A heat pump handles most of the season and a gas furnace takes the coldest nights, which sidesteps the efficiency drop in deep cold. It keeps the furnace as insurance and adds a second system to maintain, which is the price of that insurance.
Cooling pushes the other way. Boston Logan averages about 802 cooling degree days a year, so summers here do ask for air conditioning. A heat pump is also an air conditioner, which means one system can replace both a furnace and a separate cooling unit. If your central AC is old, that tilts the decision toward the heat pump even when gas looks slightly cheaper. If you have no gas service at all, the furnace is off the table, and the choice is between a heat pump and whatever you burn or plug in now. Keep the furnace when the unit is healthy, and lean to the heat pump when cooling or a fuel-oil bill is part of the picture.
Common questions
Is a heat pump cheaper to run than a gas furnace in Massachusetts?
It depends on your gas rate. A heat pump at 8.1 HSPF2 delivers a million Btu for $37.21 at average residential electricity prices. Divide your gas cost per million Btu by your furnace’s efficiency rating and compare it with that number.
Does a heat pump keep working through a Massachusetts winter?
Yes, though its efficiency drops in deep cold. Boston Logan averages about 5,545 heating degree days a year, and the coldest month’s mean daily low is 23.1°F. Backup strips or a furnace handle the coldest nights, and those hours cost more.
Is 30.14 cents per kWh what I will pay?
Not necessarily. It is a statewide average residential price, year-to-date through July 2026, from the EIA. Your utility and rate plan set your actual price, so check your bill before estimating savings.
Can a heat pump replace my central air conditioner too?
It can. A heat pump cools as well as heats, and ENERGY STAR sets a 15.2 SEER2 minimum for the cooling side. With about 802 cooling degree days a year at Boston Logan, summer cooling is worth counting in the comparison.