The honest answer hinges on a number that isn’t available here: the price of natural gas in Saskatchewan. What can be pinned down is how electricity performs depending on the equipment that turns it into heat, and how hard the winters push on that equipment. Both are laid out below, along with the one calculation that settles the gas question.
The short answer for Saskatchewan
Against electric baseboard, a heat pump is the cheaper system to run here, and the gap is wide. One million Btu of delivered heat costs C$22.09 with a heat pump at 8.1 HSPF2 (seasonal COP about 2.4) and C$52.43 with baseboard heaters. That is C$30.34 less per million Btu. The figures are computed from average residential prices, ENERGY STAR efficiencies and EIA energy conversions. The electricity price behind them comes from Hydro-Québec’s comparison of North American cities, measured in Regina.
Two limits apply. This is a running cost on the same unit of heat, not a yearly bill, because a bill depends on how big and how leaky the house is. And it says nothing about what the equipment costs to buy and install.
The gas furnace is the missing piece. The data behind this comparison holds no natural gas price for Saskatchewan, so any per-Btu figure for a furnace would be invented. The price must come from your gas utility’s residential rate. The arithmetic after that is short. Natural gas carries about 1,037 Btu per cubic foot, so divide the price per cubic foot by 1,037 and multiply by one million to get the fuel cost of a million Btu. Then divide by the furnace’s efficiency, written as a decimal, from its rating label. If your bill uses another unit, convert first. The result sits directly beside C$22.09.
If baseboard is what you heat with today, a heat pump is the cheaper way to run on electricity. Against gas, the verdict waits on your utility’s rate.
What each option costs to run in Saskatchewan
| System | Efficiency used | Cost per million Btu delivered |
|---|---|---|
| Electric resistance (baseboard) | 100% | C$52.43 |
| Heat pump | 8.1 HSPF2 (seasonal COP about 2.4) | C$22.09 |
| Gas furnace | Set by the unit’s rating label | Not computed: no natural gas price in the data |
All amounts are in Canadian dollars. The electricity price is 17.89 cents per kWh, an average residential price before taxes at 1,000 kWh a month, under rates in effect April 1, 2025, measured in Regina. The source is Hydro-Québec’s comparison of electricity prices in large North American cities. It is a city average meant for comparing fuels, so it won’t match any particular bill. The same goes for the natural gas side: until you have the local rate, that row stays empty.
Fuel price gets all the attention, but efficiency moves the result just as much. A kilowatt-hour holds 3,412 Btu. Baseboard turns all of it into heat and no more. A heat pump with a seasonal COP of about 2.4 moves heat in from outside instead of making it, so each kWh buys more than twice the warmth. That is how a heat pump ends up far cheaper on the same electricity price. A furnace runs the same logic in reverse: a cheap fuel loses its edge if the unit wastes a share of it up the flue.
The 8.1 in that row is a floor, not a typical value. ENERGY STAR sets 8.1 HSPF2 as the minimum for ducted split systems and single-package equipment, and 8.5 for non-ducted ones. A ductless system has no duct losses, so it starts with an advantage and has to do better to earn the same label. The full reasoning is in What HSPF2 Measures, and Why Ductless Asks for More. When comparing two units, match the letters: HSPF2 rates heating, SEER2 rates cooling.
Compare fuels per million Btu delivered, never per kWh against per cubic foot.
How cold it gets, and what that does to a heat pump
Saskatoon’s weather station records about 5,743 heating degree days a year below 18 °C, according to Environment and Climate Change Canada’s 1981-2010 normals. Degree days turn climate into fuel: twice the degree days means roughly twice the fuel for the same house. Winter here is a long job for any heating system.
Don’t set that figure beside an American one. The base differs (18 °C is 64.4 °F, against 65 °F in U.S. data), the unit differs (Celsius degree-days), and the period differs (1981-2010 here, 1991-2020 there). It also comes from a single station, Saskatoon, so Regina or a northern town will read differently.
The coldest nights
The mean daily minimum of the coldest month at the Saskatoon reference station is -20.7 °C. That is an average, so individual nights fall below it. A heat pump’s efficiency drops in deep cold, and the C$22.09 figure rests on a seasonal COP of about 2.4, an average across the whole heating season. On the coldest nights the real number is lower.
That is why cold-climate installations pair the heat pump with a backup, either resistance strips or a furnace, to carry those nights. If the backup is resistance, those hours cost like baseboard, C$52.43 per million Btu. If it’s a gas furnace, the cost depends on that gas rate you still need to look up. How a heat pump behaves as temperatures fall is covered in How Cold Is Too Cold for a Heat Pump.
No single temperature flips the verdict, and I’d distrust anyone who quotes one without knowing the equipment. What matters is the share of the season spent in the deep cold, and the backup you pair with the system.
Plan around the coldest nights with a backup, not around the seasonal average.
What homes in Saskatchewan already heat with
Statistics Canada’s 2023 survey (table 38-10-0286) puts forced-air furnaces as the main heating system in 79% of Saskatchewan homes. Boilers with hot-water or steam radiators come second at 10%. Heat pumps, electric baseboard and heating stoves show as “not reported,” meaning the estimate was suppressed as unreliable. That is not zero. The survey simply doesn’t publish a figure for them. These are province-wide shares, not a count for one town.
The shares record what was installed, which tells you what fuel looked cheap when the houses were built. They are not a recommendation. They do tell you which conversion most readers face.
A forced-air house already has ducts, so a ducted heat pump, or a heat pump paired with the existing furnace, can use that distribution. A house heated by a boiler has no ducts, and converting it is a different project: either ductless units or new ductwork. Ductless or Central sorts out that choice. A house with no gas line changes the comparison entirely. The furnace drops out, the real contest is heat pump against electric resistance, and the C$30.34 gap per million Btu is the one that applies.
For the wider picture of heating in the province, Heating a Home in Saskatchewan covers the other options.
Check two things first: whether the house has ducts, and whether it has a gas line.
When the other choice wins
Cheapest to run isn’t always the right call. Start with a furnace that still works. A running system with years of life left has already been paid for, and replacing it early trades a known cost for a saving you haven’t confirmed against your gas rate. Repairing a Furnace or Replacing It lays out how to weigh that.
Dual fuel is the second case. Keep the furnace, add a heat pump as the lead system, and let the furnace take over when the cold outruns the heat pump. In a province with 5,743 heating degree days and a coldest-month nightly low of -20.7 °C, that arrangement answers the deep-cold problem directly. Whether the furnace is cheaper than resistance strips on those nights depends again on the local gas rate.
Cooling points the other way. A heat pump also air-conditions, and ENERGY STAR sets a floor of 15.2 SEER2 for the cooling side. If you need air conditioning anyway, one system covers both jobs. The data here carries no cooling degree-day figure for Saskatchewan, so I can’t say how much summer cooling a typical house uses. If you rarely run air conditioning, that benefit shrinks.
Finally, with no gas service, the furnace isn’t on the table, and the heat pump beats baseboard on running cost. Baseboard only makes sense in a small, rarely used space where the savings never repay a new installation.
Keep a working furnace and add a heat pump as the lead system when you want gas covering the coldest nights.
Common questions
Does a heat pump work through a Saskatchewan winter?
Yes, with a backup. Efficiency drops in deep cold, and the seasonal COP of about 2.4 is an average. Resistance strips or a furnace carry the coldest nights.
How much cheaper is a heat pump than electric baseboard?
C$30.34 less per million Btu delivered: C$22.09 against C$52.43. It is a running-cost comparison on the same unit, not a yearly bill.
Which electricity price was used?
17.89 cents per kWh in Canadian dollars, an average residential price before taxes at 1,000 kWh a month, measured in Regina under rates in effect April 1, 2025 (source: Hydro-Québec).
Which efficiency rating should I compare?
HSPF2 for heating. ENERGY STAR’s minimums are 8.1 for ducted and single-package systems and 8.5 for non-ducted ones. SEER2 measures cooling only.