On fuel cost alone, a natural gas furnace is cheaper to run than a heat pump in Rhode Island. Computed from federal price and efficiency data, the furnace delivers heat for $26.27 less per million Btu. That is a running-cost comparison on identical units, not a yearly bill, and it says nothing about what the equipment costs to buy. Winter cold, the fuel already in your house, and a need for air conditioning can all change the answer.
The short answer for Rhode Island
Start with the three numbers. At Rhode Island’s average residential prices, one million Btu of heat delivered to the house costs $9.80 with a natural gas furnace at 97% AFUE. A heat pump at 8.1 HSPF2 (a seasonal COP of about 2.4) costs $36.07. Electric resistance, such as baseboard, costs $85.64. These figures are computed from EIA residential prices, ENERGY STAR efficiencies and EIA energy conversions.
So gas runs cheapest here, and the heat pump comes second by a wide margin over baseboard. The heat pump is not the cheapest option in this state, but it is by far the cheapest way to heat with electricity.
Read that carefully. It compares fuels on the same unit of delivered heat. It is not what a particular house will pay in a year, because that depends on the size of the house, how tight it is, and how many hours the system runs. It is also not the price of the equipment or its installation, which can swing the lifetime math in either direction.
The heat pump figure uses the ENERGY STAR minimum, a seasonal average, so a better-than-minimum model would do somewhat better and deep cold would pull it down. For a house that already has a gas line and a working duct system, the simple rule is this: if gas is available and running cost is your only test, the furnace wins. The sections below cover when that stops being true.
What each option costs to run in Rhode Island
| System | Efficiency used | Cost per million Btu delivered |
|---|---|---|
| Natural gas furnace | 97% AFUE | $9.80 |
| Heat pump | 8.1 HSPF2 (seasonal COP about 2.4) | $36.07 |
| Electric resistance (baseboard) | 100% | $85.64 |
The electricity side rests on one figure: the average residential price in Rhode Island is 29.22 cents per kWh, the year-to-date average through July in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.B. It is a statewide average, and your utility and rate plan will differ. The gas side uses EIA’s average residential natural gas price, converted at about 1,037 Btu per cubic foot. For your own estimate, your gas utility’s current rate sheet is the number to trust.
Fuel price is only half of the equation, because each system turns it into heat differently. A kilowatt-hour carries 3,412 Btu, and baseboard converts all of it to heat, one for one. A heat pump at a seasonal COP of about 2.4 moves roughly 2.4 times that amount into the house. A 97% AFUE furnace turns 97 cents of each fuel dollar into heat. Electricity here is expensive per Btu, so even a heat pump that multiplies it cannot catch cheap gas, while baseboard has no multiplier at all.
When shopping, the efficiency rating is worth reading closely. ENERGY STAR asks for 8.5 HSPF2 from non-ducted split systems but only 8.1 from ducted ones. A ductless system has no duct losses, so it starts with an advantage and has to be better to earn the same label. What HSPF2 Measures, and Why Ductless Asks for More covers the rating in detail. Compare the same letter across units: HSPF2 measures heating, SEER2 measures cooling. These are minimums to earn the label, not typical values. Compare quotes on HSPF2 for heating cost, not on SEER2.
How cold it gets, and what that does to a heat pump
The reference station for Rhode Island is Providence T F Green Airport. NOAA’s 1991-2020 normals give it about 5,478 heating degree days a year, counted against a 65 F base. A heating degree day adds up how far each day’s mean temperature sat below 65 F, so it turns a climate into a fuel bill. Twice the degree days means roughly twice the fuel for the same house.
The same station averages a daily minimum of 22.1 F in its coldest month. Nights below freezing are the norm through the core of winter, though not the brutal, weeks-below-zero kind of cold. It is a long heating season with a steady, moderate demand. Rhode Island is small, but inland and higher ground can run colder than Providence, and that coastal-influenced figure should be read as a reference city, not a statewide reading.
The $36.07 heat pump figure uses a seasonal efficiency, an average across the whole winter. In deep cold, a heat pump’s efficiency drops, so the coldest hours cost more per Btu than the average suggests. A backup then carries the coldest nights, either electric resistance strips (priced above at $85.64 per million Btu) or a gas furnace. How much that backup runs depends on the house and the unit. The article How Cold Is Too Cold for a Heat Pump explains how performance falls as temperatures sink.
The result is that the heat pump’s disadvantage against gas here is not caused by the cold alone. Gas is cheap relative to electricity at these prices even before the cold bites. The cold simply makes the gap a little wider on the worst nights. Plan for the backup as part of the system’s cost, not as an afterthought, especially if the backup is resistance strips.
What homes in Rhode Island already heat with
The EIA’s 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey gives state shares for main heating equipment and fuel. Furnaces are the main equipment in 51% of homes, and steam or hot-water boilers in 33%. By fuel, natural gas leads at 53%, fuel oil or kerosene follows at 31%, and electricity is at 13%. The survey does not publish a figure for central heat pumps or for propane, because those estimates were suppressed as unreliable. That is not the same as zero. It means the survey cannot say.
These shares describe what was installed, not what is best. They reflect which fuel was cheap and available when the homes were built, and a state share says nothing about your street. Still, they show where the decision actually gets made.
A house with a gas line is the case the $9.80 figure describes. A house without one changes the question: gas is not an option, so the comparison is heat pump against resistance ($36.07 against $85.64) and against whatever oil costs, which our figures do not cover. With nearly a third of homes on oil or kerosene, many owners face exactly that comparison.
A boiler house is a different conversion. Radiators and hot-water pipes mean no ducts, so a ducted heat pump would need new ductwork, while a ductless system avoids it. Ductless or Central walks through that choice. For the wider picture of fuels and systems across the state, see Heating a Home in Rhode Island. If you have a boiler, price the conversion as a separate project, not as a like-for-like swap.
When the other choice wins
The cheaper-to-run system is not always the right call. Four situations push the other way.
- No gas service at the street. Without a line, the $9.80 figure is irrelevant, and the heat pump becomes the efficient electric option.
- A need for air conditioning. Providence averages about 812 cooling degree days a year, enough that many households want cooling too.
- A dual-fuel setup, with a heat pump for most hours and a furnace for the coldest nights.
- An old system with years left.
Cooling is where a heat pump earns back some ground. One unit heats and cools, so a household replacing both a furnace and an aging central air conditioner is comparing one system against two. The ENERGY STAR label asks for at least 15.2 SEER2 on the cooling side. That figure sets a floor for quality, not a price or a savings promise.
Dual fuel splits the difference. The heat pump handles the many mild hours, where its efficiency is best, and the gas furnace takes over when the temperature falls far enough that the heat pump struggles. It costs more to install two systems, but it avoids leaning on $85.64 resistance strips in a long winter.
As for an older furnace, a working system with years left is a different calculation. Its fuel cost is already the lowest in the table, and replacing it early spends money to save little. Repairing a Furnace or Replacing It sets out when each makes sense. Keep a sound gas furnace running and switch when it fails, unless you need cooling anyway.
Common questions
Is a heat pump cheaper to run than electric baseboard in Rhode Island?
Yes. At the state’s average residential prices, a heat pump at 8.1 HSPF2 delivers a million Btu for $36.07, while baseboard costs $85.64. Both are computed from EIA prices and ENERGY STAR efficiencies.
Does a heat pump still work when it gets cold here?
It works, with less efficiency. The coldest month at Providence averages a daily minimum of 22.1 F. The $36.07 figure is a seasonal average, so the coldest hours cost more, and a backup such as resistance strips or a furnace covers the coldest nights.
Does the $9.80 gas figure include the cost of the furnace?
No. It covers fuel only, per million Btu delivered at 97% AFUE. Equipment, installation, maintenance and any ductwork are separate, and they decide the lifetime comparison.
Do most Rhode Island homes heat with gas?
About half do. The EIA’s 2020 survey puts natural gas at 53% of homes, fuel oil or kerosene at 31%, and electricity at 13%. These are state shares, not your neighborhood’s, and the survey does not publish a figure for propane.