In Kansas, a natural gas furnace costs less to run than a heat pump. The computed figure is $14.72 per million Btu of heat delivered, against $18.78 for a heat pump, a gap of $4.06. Electric baseboard is far behind both. But the cheapest fuel doesn’t always make the best choice. Winter lows, cooling needs and the lines already in your house all change the answer.
The short answer for Kansas
Start with the numbers. Using average Kansas residential prices from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the efficiency ratings behind ENERGY STAR, a gas furnace at 97% AFUE delivers a million Btu of heat for $14.72. A heat pump at 8.1 HSPF2 (a seasonal COP of about 2.4) does it for $18.78. Electric resistance, such as baseboard heaters at 100% efficiency, lands at $44.58.
The gas furnace is the cheapest to run here, by $4.06 per million Btu over the heat pump. The heat pump sits much closer to gas than to baseboard.
A caution before anyone does math at the kitchen table. These figures compare fuels on the same unit of heat. They are not a yearly bill, which depends on your house’s size, insulation and air leaks. They also say nothing about what the equipment costs to buy and install.
If your house already has a gas line, the furnace is the cheaper system to run; if it doesn’t, a heat pump clearly beats electric baseboard.
The rest of this article covers why the gap exists, how Kansas winters affect it, and the situations where the more expensive option makes sense anyway.
What each option costs to run in Kansas
Here is the comparison, copied from the computed figures described above.
| System | Efficiency used | Cost per million Btu delivered |
|---|---|---|
| Electric resistance (baseboard) | 100% | $44.58 |
| Heat pump | 8.1 HSPF2 (seasonal COP about 2.4) | $18.78 |
| Natural gas furnace | 97% AFUE | $14.72 |
Two kinds of input sit behind that table. On the electric side, the EIA’s Electric Power Monthly (Table 5.6.B) puts the average Kansas residential price at 15.21 cents per kWh, a year-to-date figure through July. The gas figure comes from the EIA’s average residential natural gas price for Kansas, converted at about 1,037 Btu per cubic foot. Electricity converts at 3,412 Btu per kWh. Both are statewide averages, so your utility and rate plan will differ. Your gas bill will show your real per-unit price.
Efficiency matters as much as the price of the fuel because a fuel is not the same thing as heat. A kilowatt-hour run through a baseboard heater produces exactly one kWh of heat. A heat pump moves heat from outdoor air into the house, so the same kWh yields about 2.4 times as much on a seasonal average. That is why electricity at 15.21 cents per kWh can still beat expectations. A furnace at 97% AFUE turns nearly all of its gas into warm air, so very little is wasted.
The 8.1 in the table is the ENERGY STAR minimum for ducted and single-package heat pumps. Non-ducted (ductless) systems must reach 8.5 for the same label, because they have no duct losses and so start with an advantage. For more on that, see What HSPF2 Measures, and Why Ductless Asks for More. A unit above the minimum would cost less to run than the table shows. HSPF2 measures heating and SEER2 measures cooling, so compare like with like.
Judge every system by the cost of a million Btu delivered, never by the price of a kWh or a cubic foot of gas alone.
How cold it gets, and what that does to a heat pump
Wichita, the reference city for Kansas figures here, averages about 4,414 heating degree days a year (base 65°F, NOAA 1991-2020 normals). That number adds up, day by day, how far the average temperature sat below 65°F. Twice the degree days means roughly twice the fuel for the same house. A heating season that size is long, not brutal.
The coldest month shows the harder edge. The mean daily minimum in Wichita’s coldest month is 22.5°F, so winter nights routinely fall below freezing. That is an average, which means some nights run colder. It is also one station. Other parts of Kansas can run colder or milder than Wichita.
This is where the heat pump figure needs a caveat. The 2.4 seasonal COP is an average across the whole winter. In deep cold a heat pump’s efficiency drops, and on the coldest nights something else often carries part of the load. That backup is usually electric resistance strips built into the system, or a furnace in a dual-fuel setup. Those cold-night hours run closer to the $44.58 resistance figure than to $18.78, which narrows the heat pump’s seasonal advantage. For the full picture, read How Cold Is Too Cold for a Heat Pump.
The seasonal averages already include the mild shoulder months, when a heat pump runs at its best. A Kansas winter is long enough that your heating bill will depend on how well the house holds heat as much as on which machine makes it. Ask any installer how the system will cover the coldest nights, and get the backup heat source named in the quote.
What homes in Kansas already heat with
The Residential Energy Consumption Survey from the EIA (RECS 2020, state tables) shows what Kansas homes actually use. A furnace is the main equipment in 86% of them. Natural gas is the main fuel in 71%, electricity in 21% and propane in 6%. Central heat pumps are the main equipment in 6% of homes.
Two entries have no figure. The survey does not publish a share for steam or hot-water boilers because the estimate was suppressed as unreliable. It also reports none for fuel oil or kerosene because too few households were found to publish a number. That doesn’t mean no Kansas home uses them. It means the survey can’t say how many.
These shares describe what was installed, which reflects what was cheap and available when the houses were built. They are not a recommendation. They are state shares, not a count of your county or street.
They do change how you read the comparison. In the majority of homes with a gas furnace and ductwork, switching to a heat pump can reuse the ducts, but you would trade the cheapest fuel for the middle option. A home on propane or electric heat has no gas line, so the real comparison is the heat pump’s $18.78 against baseboard’s $44.58. I have no propane price to give you, so ask your supplier. A house with a boiler and radiators faces a different conversion, because there are no ducts to reuse. That usually points toward ductless units or a hydronic-compatible system. More local detail is in Heating a Home in Kansas.
If you have no gas line, compare a heat pump against electric baseboard, not against gas.
When the other choice wins
Cheapest to run is not the same as the right call. Several Kansas situations favor the heat pump even though gas wins the fuel comparison.
No gas service, or a need for cooling
Without gas service, the furnace’s $14.72 is not available to you. Your options become a heat pump, electric resistance or propane, and the heat pump’s $18.78 beats baseboard’s $44.58 by a wide margin. Cooling matters too. Wichita averages about 1,774 cooling degree days a year, so air conditioning is not optional for most Kansas households. A heat pump heats and cools with one system. If your central air conditioner is near the end of its life, replacing it with a heat pump can make more sense than buying a new air conditioner next to an existing furnace. For ducted versus ductless setups, see Ductless or Central.
Dual-fuel and aging equipment
Dual-fuel setups pair a heat pump with a gas furnace. The heat pump handles the mild and moderate weather when it is efficient, and the furnace takes over on the coldest nights. That arrangement fits a state with long, cold-but-not-brutal winters. The mix of costs depends on how your utility prices each fuel, so the savings are specific to your house.
Then there is the old system with years left. A furnace in good working order that still runs reliably is hard to beat on running cost, and replacing it early means paying for new equipment before you must. If it starts failing, Repairing a Furnace or Replacing It lays out how to weigh the repair against a new unit.
Keep a working gas furnace until it fails, then price a heat pump or dual-fuel system against a new furnace, especially if the air conditioner is also aging.
Common questions
Does a heat pump cost less to run than electric baseboard in Kansas?
Yes. At average Kansas residential prices, a heat pump at 8.1 HSPF2 delivers a million Btu for $18.78. Electric resistance costs $44.58 for the same heat. That comparison is based on EIA prices and ENERGY STAR efficiencies.
Will a heat pump keep up with Kansas winters?
Wichita’s coldest month averages a daily low of 22.5°F, so winter nights are cold. A heat pump loses efficiency in deep cold, and backup heat such as resistance strips or a furnace usually covers the worst nights. Ask how the system will be backed up.
Is the $4.06 difference my annual savings?
No. It is a difference per million Btu of delivered heat, not a yearly figure. Your actual bill depends on your house, its insulation and your utility’s rates. It also does not include what the equipment costs to buy and install.
Can I keep my furnace and add a heat pump?
Yes, that is a dual-fuel setup. The heat pump runs in milder weather and the furnace covers the coldest nights. Whether it saves money depends on your local electric and gas rates, so check with your utility and an installer.