At New York’s average residential prices, a gas furnace is the cheaper system to run: $17.48 per million Btu of heat delivered, against $36.27 for a heat pump at 8.1 HSPF2, the ENERGY STAR cold-climate minimum for ducted units. That gap is real, but it covers fuel only. It says nothing about air conditioning, a house with no gas line, or what the equipment costs to install, and those three often decide the question.
The short answer for New York
Gas wins on running cost. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes average residential prices for electricity and natural gas. Combined with ENERGY STAR efficiencies and EIA energy conversions, they give three costs for one million Btu of heat delivered to the house. A natural gas furnace at 97% AFUE costs $17.48. A heat pump at 8.1 HSPF2 (seasonal COP about 2.4) costs $36.27. Electric baseboard, at 100% efficiency, costs $86.11. The furnace comes out $18.79 per million Btu cheaper than the heat pump.
That is a running cost on the same unit of heat. It is not a yearly bill, and it does not include the price of buying or installing either system. If your house already has a gas line and fuel cost is your only test, keep or choose the gas furnace. If the house has no gas, the comparison changes, as the sections below show.
Is that gap my yearly heating bill?
No. A yearly bill multiplies the cost per million Btu by the heat your house needs over a winter. That need depends on the home’s size, its air leaks, and the insulation in the attic and walls. A leaky house burns more of either fuel. The ratio between the two systems still holds, because a house that needs twice the heat pays twice at each price. Utility rates and rate plans also differ across the state, so use the gap to compare systems and your own bills to estimate your cost.
What each option costs to run in New York
| System | Efficiency used | Cost per million Btu delivered |
|---|---|---|
| Electric resistance (baseboard) | 100% efficient | $86.11 |
| Heat pump | 8.1 HSPF2 (seasonal COP about 2.4) | $36.27 |
| Natural gas furnace | 97% AFUE | $17.48 |
What prices sit behind the table?
Electricity averages 29.38 cents per kWh for residential customers, year-to-date through July 2026, according to the EIA’s Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.B. It converts to heat at 3,412 Btu per kWh. The gas furnace figure starts from the EIA’s 2025 annual average residential natural gas price for New York, about $17.58 per thousand cubic feet, converted at about 1,037 Btu per cubic foot. The electricity figure is a 2026 year-to-date average, so the two cover different periods, and gas prices have moved since. Both are statewide averages, so your utility’s rate may differ. Your gas bill shows your own price per therm or per hundred cubic feet.
Why does efficiency matter as much as the fuel price?
A kilowatt-hour holds 3,412 Btu. Baseboard turns all of it into heat, which is why it costs the most per million Btu at New York electricity prices. A heat pump moves heat from outdoor air and delivers about 2.4 units of heat per unit of electricity over a season, so it costs $36.27 against $86.11 on the same electric rate. A 97% AFUE furnace puts nearly all of the gas’s energy into the house, and gas is cheap per Btu. Compare systems by cost per million Btu delivered, because a price per kWh and a price per therm cannot be set side by side.
The 8.1 HSPF2 used above is the ENERGY STAR minimum for ducted heat pumps with the cold-climate designation; the standard ENERGY STAR minimum for split systems is 7.8. Non-ducted systems must reach 8.5 for the same cold-climate designation. A unit rated above 8.1 would cost less to run than the table shows, and one rated lower would cost more. For a closer look at the rating, see What HSPF2 Measures, and Why Ductless Asks for More. When you compare two units, check the same letter on both: HSPF2 measures heating and SEER2 measures cooling.
How cold it gets, and what that does to a heat pump
The reference station in New York City, Central Park, logs about 4,553 heating degree days a year (base 65°F), per NOAA’s 1991-2020 climate normals. Each day adds the number of degrees its mean temperature sat below 65°F, so twice the degree days means roughly twice the fuel for the same house. The mean daily low in the coldest month is 27.9°F. That is a long heating season with nights that sit below freezing.
Does a heat pump still work when it gets cold?
It does, with a lower efficiency. The $36.27 figure uses a seasonal average, and in deep cold a heat pump delivers less heat per kWh than that average. On the coldest nights a backup carries the load: electric resistance strips built into the unit, or a gas furnace in a dual-fuel setup. Strips run at the baseboard cost of $86.11 per million Btu, so the number of hours they work matters. For the mechanics, see How Cold Is Too Cold for a Heat Pump.
Central Park is one station. A mountain county in the same state can run far colder, with more degree days and more hours on backup, so the city’s numbers will understate winter there. Ask the installer which backup is in the quote and how much of a normal winter it is expected to cover. How the heating season runs in your own town is covered under heating season in New York.
What homes in New York already heat with
The EIA’s Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) 2020 state tables show main heating equipment. A furnace heats 44% of New York homes, a steam or hot-water boiler 35%, and a central heat pump 3%. By fuel, natural gas leads at 61%, followed by fuel oil or kerosene at 17%, electricity at 16%, and propane at 4%. These are statewide shares from a national survey, so they do not count your street or county. They also record what was installed, which reflects past choices rather than today’s prices.
A house without a gas line is a different comparison. Gas drops out, and the heat pump competes with whatever the house burns now. Against baseboard, the table’s $36.27 beats $86.11 on the same electric rate. Oil and propane prices move with each delivery, so ask your supplier for the current price per gallon and convert it to a million Btu before you compare.
Boiler houses are a separate conversion. Hot water or steam through radiators means there are no ducts. A heat pump then means ductless heads or new ductwork, and that adds cost beyond the unit itself. Ductless or Central walks through that choice, and Heating a Home in New York covers the state overview. Start with your current fuel: baseboard houses gain the most from a heat pump, while gas houses pay more to run one.
When the other choice wins
When does a heat pump beat a gas furnace in New York?
The first case is a home with no gas service. The gas furnace is not an option there, and a heat pump’s $36.27 is the lower of the two electric figures. The second case is cooling. The reference station records about 1,222 cooling degree days a year, so air conditioning gets real use. A heat pump heats and cools with one set of equipment, and the ENERGY STAR label asks for at least 15.2 SEER2 on cooling. A house with a gas furnace needs a separate air conditioner. If your furnace runs on gas and your central air is near the end of its life, price a heat pump or a dual-fuel system before you replace the air conditioner alone.
Dual-fuel setups pair a heat pump with a furnace. The heat pump carries mild weather, where it is efficient, and the furnace takes the coldest nights instead of resistance strips. Because gas is the cheapest fuel per million Btu in the table, the furnace is a cheaper backup than strips at $86.11.
Should I replace a working furnace early?
Usually not for fuel savings. A furnace already costs less to run than a heat pump here, so replacing a sound one with a heat pump raises the fuel cost. If the furnace has years left, the better first step is often sealing and insulating, which lowers the heat the house needs under either system. When repairs start piling up, Repairing a Furnace or Replacing It lays out how to decide.
Common questions
Is a heat pump cheaper to run than a gas furnace in New York?
No. At average residential prices, the heat pump costs $36.27 per million Btu delivered and the 97% AFUE gas furnace costs $17.48. The heat pump costs less than baseboard, at $86.11.
Would a ductless heat pump cost less than $36.27?
Probably. The $36.27 uses 8.1 HSPF2, the ENERGY STAR cold-climate minimum for ducted systems. Non-ducted systems must reach 8.5 to earn the cold-climate designation, so a unit with that rating should come in lower. How much lower depends on the model’s own rating.
Does a mountain county change the answer?
It can. Colder places have more heating degree days, so the heat pump spends more hours in deep cold, where its efficiency drops, and the backup works longer. Get gas rates from your local utility.
Does the cost per million Btu include equipment and installation?
No. It covers fuel for the same amount of delivered heat. Equipment, installation, ductwork and any electrical work come on top, so get written quotes for those.