In Oregon, a heat pump delivers a million Btu of heat for $19.01. Electric baseboard costs $45.13 for the same heat. Both numbers come from EIA electricity prices and ENERGY STAR efficiency. Natural gas is the missing piece because its rate varies by utility, so the furnace comparison needs one number from your own gas bill. Here is how the pieces fit, and when the cheaper system is still the wrong call.
The short answer for Oregon
Between the two electric options, the heat pump wins by a wide margin. Computed from EIA residential prices, ENERGY STAR efficiencies and EIA energy conversions, it is the cheapest to run here at $19.01 per million Btu delivered, which is $26.12 less than electric resistance at $45.13. A heat pump moves heat instead of making it, so each unit of electricity buys more than twice the warmth of a baseboard heater.
A gas furnace has no computed figure here, because natural gas rates differ from one Oregon utility to the next. Your gas company can give you the current rate per therm or per hundred cubic feet. A cubic foot of natural gas carries about 1,037 Btu, and your furnace’s efficiency rating tells you how much of that reaches the house. With those two numbers you can put a gas cost next to the $19.01.
These are running costs for the same unit of heat. They are not a yearly bill, which depends on your square footage, insulation and thermostat habits, and they say nothing about what the equipment costs to buy and install. Write down the heat pump’s $19.01 per million Btu, get your gas utility’s rate, and compare the two before you choose.
What each option costs to run in Oregon
| System | Efficiency used | Cost per million Btu delivered |
|---|---|---|
| Electric resistance (baseboard) | 100% | $45.13 |
| Heat pump | 8.1 HSPF2 (seasonal COP about 2.4) | $19.01 |
| Gas furnace | Depends on the furnace | Ask your gas utility for its rate |
The electricity price behind both rows is 15.40 cents per kWh, the average residential price year-to-date through July in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Electric Power Monthly (Table 5.6.B). It is a statewide average. Your utility and rate plan can land above or below it, so use it to compare fuels and never as a prediction of your bill. One kilowatt-hour equals 3,412 Btu, and that conversion turns the price into a cost per million Btu.
Why does efficiency matter as much as the fuel price?
Because you pay for the fuel that goes in, while you feel only the heat that comes out. Baseboard heaters turn every kWh into heat, one for one. The heat pump row uses a seasonal COP of about 2.4, so the same kWh buys about 2.4 times as much heat. That ratio is why the same 15.40 cents produces such different costs in the table.
The 8.1 HSPF2 in the table is the ENERGY STAR minimum for a ducted split system or a single-package unit. ENERGY STAR asks more of a non-ducted (ductless) system, at least 8.5 HSPF2, because it has no duct losses and starts with an advantage. Both types must also reach 15.2 SEER2, which measures cooling. HSPF2 is the heating letter, so compare units on that one. What HSPF2 Measures, and Why Ductless Asks for More goes deeper. If your gas furnace’s cost per million Btu comes in under $19.01, it is cheaper to run. If it comes in above, the heat pump is.
How cold it gets, and what that does to a heat pump
Portland International Airport sees about 4,104 heating degree days a year (base 65°F), according to NOAA’s 1991-2020 Climate Normals. Degree days add up how far each day’s mean temperature sat below 65°F, so twice the number means roughly twice the fuel for the same house. The mean daily minimum of the coldest month at that station is 36.2°F, above freezing. That describes a long, mild heating season and not a brutal one.
Those mild lows matter for the heat pump. The $19.01 figure uses a seasonal efficiency, an average across the whole winter. Efficiency drops in deep cold, but where the coldest month still averages 36.2°F at night, the heat pump spends little time in that range. In the Portland area, it stays close to its efficient range most of the season.
One station does not describe the whole state. Mountain counties can run far colder than Portland, with more hours when efficiency sags. If you live in one, treat the seasonal COP of 2.4 as optimistic for your coldest weeks.
Does a heat pump need a backup in Oregon?
In deep cold, a heat pump leans on backup heat for the coldest nights. That is either resistance strips built into the air handler or a gas furnace that takes over. In mild Portland-area winters the backup rarely runs for long. In colder pockets it carries more of the load, and each hour on resistance strips costs closer to the $45.13 row than the $19.01 row. How Cold Is Too Cold for a Heat Pump explains how performance falls as temperatures drop. In a mild-winter area like the Portland reference city, plan on the heat pump doing nearly all the work, and in a colder mountain county, plan on a real backup.
What homes in Oregon already heat with
The EIA’s 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey puts Oregon’s main heating equipment at furnaces in 50% of homes and central heat pumps in 13%. By fuel, electricity is the main source in 45% of homes and natural gas in 41%. The survey does not publish a reliable estimate for boilers, propane or fuel oil in Oregon, which does not mean those homes are absent. These are state shares from a national survey, not a count for your county.
Those shares show what was installed, so they tell you which fuel looked cheap when the houses were built. They do not recommend anything. They do show that a large share of Oregon homes are already all-electric, and for those homes the comparison is the heat pump against baseboard or electric furnace heat, where the heat pump’s $26.12 advantage per million Btu applies directly.
A house without a gas line changes the question. A gas furnace would need a service connection first, so the real choice is between a heat pump and electric resistance. A house with a boiler and radiators is a different conversion. It has no ducts, so a ductless heat pump or a new duct run is the way in. A house with an existing gas furnace and ducts is the easy swap, and Repairing a Furnace or Replacing It covers when that swap makes sense. For the wider picture, see Heating a Home in Oregon. Start from what your house has now, whether that is ducts, radiators or baseboards, because the conversion path matters as much as the running cost.
When the other choice wins
The heat pump is the cheapest to run in this comparison, but that does not make it the right call in every house. Several situations push the other way.
Is a gas furnace ever the better choice?
If your utility’s gas rate delivers heat for less than $19.01 per million Btu, the furnace costs less to run, and a working furnace with years of life left may not be worth replacing yet. Replacing it early means paying for new equipment before the old one has finished its job. That is a repair-or-replace decision, and the running-cost gap is only one input.
Cooling changes the math in the heat pump’s favor. Portland averages about 508 cooling degree days a year, so a few weeks of real air conditioning are normal. A heat pump heats and cools with one machine, which can retire a separate air conditioner. A gas furnace still needs one. Ductless or Central covers which format fits which house.
A dual-fuel setup pairs a heat pump with a gas furnace. The furnace takes over on the coldest nights, so in a colder county you can run the heat pump most of the season and keep gas for the hardest weeks. That only works where a gas line already exists.
Before any of these, check the house itself. A leaky, under-insulated home wastes heat from either system, and tightening it with better insulation can shrink the equipment you need. If your furnace is old and your gas is cheap, price the repair first, and if you want cooling or have no gas line, the heat pump is usually the better call.
Common questions
Is a heat pump cheaper than electric baseboard in Oregon?
Yes. At the average residential electricity price of 15.40 cents per kWh, a heat pump at 8.1 HSPF2 delivers a million Btu for $19.01, while electric resistance costs $45.13. That is a gap of $26.12 per million Btu.
Does a heat pump cost less to run than a gas furnace in Oregon?
It depends on your gas rate. The heat pump’s cost is $19.01 per million Btu. Get your utility’s price per therm or per hundred cubic feet, factor in your furnace’s efficiency, and compare against that figure.
Will a heat pump keep up in an Oregon winter?
In the Portland area it should. The coldest month averages a nightly low of 36.2°F there, so the heat pump stays near its efficient range. Colder mountain counties need a real backup for the coldest nights.
Which HSPF2 number should I compare?
Compare HSPF2 against HSPF2, since it measures heating. ENERGY STAR sets the minimum at 8.1 for ducted and single-package systems and 8.5 for non-ducted systems. SEER2 measures cooling and has a minimum of 15.2 for both.