On the numbers available here, a heat pump is the cheapest way to turn Manitoba electricity into heat: C$13.00 per million Btu delivered, against C$30.86 for electric baseboard. The gas furnace is the missing line. No natural gas price came with the data, so the heat pump versus gas call depends on your utility’s rate. Below is how the comparison works and where the heat pump’s edge thins out.
The short answer for Manitoba
Start with what the figures do establish. Computed from Hydro-Québec’s Winnipeg electricity price, ENERGY STAR efficiency criteria and standard EIA energy conversions, a heat pump at 8.1 HSPF2 (a seasonal COP of about 2.4) delivers a million Btu for C$13.00. Electric resistance, at 100% efficiency, costs C$30.86 for the same heat. That makes the heat pump the cheapest to run of the two, by C$17.86 per million Btu.
Natural gas is where the verdict stops. The data behind this comparison carry no gas price for Manitoba, so a dollar figure for a gas furnace would be a guess. Your gas bill shows the rate. Your utility can also tell you what it charges per unit of gas, and that is the number to bring into the math.
Two cautions before going further. This is running cost on the same unit of delivered heat, not a yearly bill. A leaky 1950s bungalow and a tight new build will burn very different amounts of energy, and the per-Btu gap only turns into real money once you know how much heat your house needs. It also says nothing about what the equipment costs to buy and install, which is a separate ledger.
So the practical reading is this: if you are weighing a heat pump against baseboard heaters, the heat pump wins on running cost. If you are weighing it against a gas furnace, get your own per-unit gas rate before deciding anything.
What each option costs to run in Manitoba
The table lays out the cost of one million Btu of heat actually delivered to the house, which is the fair way to compare fuels that are sold in different units.
| System | Efficiency used | Cost per million Btu delivered |
|---|---|---|
| Electric resistance (baseboard) | 100% | C$30.86 |
| Heat pump | 8.1 HSPF2 (seasonal COP about 2.4) | C$13.00 |
| Gas furnace | Depends on the unit | Not computed: no natural gas price in the sources |
Both dollar figures rest on one electricity price: 10.53 cents per kWh in Canadian dollars. That is the average residential price before taxes at 1,000 kWh a month, measured in Winnipeg under rates in effect in April 2025, from the Hydro-Québec comparison of North American city electricity prices. It is a city average before taxes. Useful for comparing fuels, but it is not your bill. And since it is in Canadian dollars, it should never be set against a U.S. rate.
Efficiency moves the result as much as the fuel price does. One kWh carries 3,412 Btu, and baseboard turns all of it into heat, no more. A heat pump with a seasonal COP of about 2.4 moves roughly 2.4 times that amount into the house, because it collects heat from outdoor air instead of making it from scratch. Same electricity price, far fewer dollars per Btu. A gas furnace plays the same game in another currency: a cubic foot of gas holds about 1,037 Btu, and the furnace’s efficiency decides how much of that reaches the rooms.
The 8.1 figure is the ENERGY STAR minimum for ducted and single-package heat pumps. Ductless units must hit 8.5 to earn the same label, since they skip duct losses and start with an advantage. These are minimums to earn a label, not typical values. For more on why ductless is held to a tougher bar, see what HSPF2 measures, and why ductless asks for more. When you collect quotes, compare HSPF2 to HSPF2, since SEER2 only measures cooling.
How cold it gets, and what that does to a heat pump
Winnipeg logs about 5,648 heating degree days a year below 18 °C, according to Environment and Climate Change Canada’s 1981-2010 climate normals at Winnipeg Richardson International. Heating degree days turn weather into fuel: twice the degree days means roughly twice the fuel for the same house. That count belongs to one station, uses an 18 °C base and Celsius degrees, and covers a different period than U.S. figures, so it should not be set beside an American number as if both measured the same thing.
The coldest month is the real test. The mean daily minimum there is -21.4 °C. That is an average low, not a record, so plenty of nights run colder still.
Here is where the C$13.00 needs an asterisk. It uses the ENERGY STAR minimum HSPF2, which is a seasonal average across the whole heating season. In deep cold a heat pump’s efficiency drops, and the cold stretch in Manitoba is not brief. The seasonal COP of about 2.4 blends mild shoulder-season days, when the unit does very well, with the coldest nights, when it does worse. The savings over baseboard are real, but they are smaller on January nights than the season-long figure suggests.
That is why a backup matters. In a cold climate the heat pump usually carries most of the season, and either resistance strips or a furnace carries the coldest nights. The backup is not a flaw in the design. It is part of how the system is meant to work here. For the mechanics of where output falls off, read how cold is too cold for a heat pump.
Size and design the system around the coldest weeks, not the average winter, and ask the installer what carries the house at -21.4 °C and below.
What homes in Manitoba already heat with
Statistics Canada’s 2023 table on primary heating systems (table 38-10-0286) shows what Manitoba houses were built around. Forced-air furnaces are the main system in 67% of homes. Electric baseboard heaters are next at 13%, and boilers with hot-water or steam radiators are at 7%. These are province-wide shares, not a count for any one town, and they say what was installed, not what anyone should install today.
Two lines in that table read as blanks: heat pumps and heating stoves are both marked “not reported.” That does not mean nobody uses them. The survey does not publish a figure because the estimate was too unreliable to release.
The furnace share matters because a forced-air house already has ducts. A ducted heat pump can reuse that distribution, and the furnace can stay on as the backup for the worst nights. The baseboard share points the other way: a house with no ductwork would likely look at ductless units, and the ductless or central question comes first. Against baseboard, the running-cost gap above is at its widest.
Boiler houses are a different job entirely. Hot-water radiators have no ducts to borrow, so a switch means new equipment and new distribution, not a swap. For the wider picture of how Manitoba homes stay warm, see heating a home in Manitoba.
Match the conversion to what you already have: ducts point to a ducted heat pump, no ducts point to ductless, and radiators mean a bigger project.
When the other choice wins
The cheapest-to-run option is not automatically the right one. Several situations tip the decision.
- No gas service at the property: the question becomes heat pump versus baseboard, and the heat pump wins on running cost by C$17.86 per million Btu.
- A furnace with years of life left: replacing it early swaps a working asset for a lower fuel cost you have not yet priced.
- A dual-fuel setup: a heat pump for most of the season and a furnace for the coldest nights.
- Air conditioning wanted: a heat pump cools as well as heats.
A house on gas service might still do best with a gas furnace if the local gas rate is low enough. Only your utility’s rate can settle that, and nothing in the data used here says otherwise. A furnace that still works well is worth keeping while you gather numbers. The repair or replace a furnace question is mostly about age, condition and repair bills.
Dual-fuel suits Manitoba’s winters precisely because the deep-cold weeks are the weak spot for heat pump efficiency. The heat pump handles the many mild hours, the furnace handles the worst ones, and each does the work it is best at.
Cooling is the extra benefit a gas-only house lacks. The data for this comparison carry no cooling degree figure for Winnipeg, so how much you would use it is a household judgment. If you already run a window unit or central air, the heat pump’s cooling side counts on the credit side.
If your furnace is sound and you have gas service, keep it and price a dual-fuel add-on; if you have neither, a heat pump is the lower-running-cost choice.
Common questions
Is a heat pump cheaper to run than a gas furnace in Manitoba?
The data here cannot say, because no Manitoba natural gas price came with it. The heat pump runs C$17.86 per million Btu below electric baseboard, at C$13.00 versus C$30.86. For gas, take the per-unit rate from your utility bill.
Does a heat pump still work at -21.4 °C?
That is the mean daily low in Winnipeg’s coldest month, and a heat pump is less efficient at those temperatures. The C$13.00 figure is a seasonal average, so the coldest nights cost more per Btu. A backup, either resistance strips or a furnace, carries those hours.
What does the 8.1 HSPF2 figure mean?
It is the ENERGY STAR minimum for ducted and single-package heat pumps, and the seasonal COP of about 2.4 comes from it. Ductless units must reach 8.5 for the same label. They are minimums to earn the badge, not typical values.
Do most Manitoba homes already have a furnace?
Statistics Canada’s 2023 survey puts forced-air furnaces at 67% of primary heating systems, electric baseboard at 13% and boilers at 7%. Heat pumps and heating stoves are “not reported,” meaning the survey publishes no figure for them. Those shares describe what was installed, not what you should choose.