In Nebraska, a 97% AFUE gas furnace costs less to run than a heat pump: $11.33 per million Btu delivered, against $15.93 for a heat pump at the ENERGY STAR minimum. The $4.60 gap is real, but it says nothing about equipment price, air conditioning, or what is already in your basement. The sections below show where the gap comes from and when it stops deciding the question.
The short answer for Nebraska
The gas furnace wins on running cost. Using average Nebraska residential prices from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and ENERGY STAR efficiencies, delivering one million Btu of heat costs $11.33 with a 97% AFUE gas furnace and $15.93 with a heat pump at 8.1 HSPF2 (a seasonal COP of about 2.4). Electric resistance, the baseboard-heater kind, comes in at $37.81. The furnace is $4.60 cheaper per million Btu than the heat pump.
Read that carefully. It is a running-cost comparison on the same unit of delivered heat, not a yearly bill. A yearly bill depends on square footage, insulation, thermostat habits and the rate plan your utility puts you on. It is also not the price of the equipment, which is a separate question with its own spread of quotes.
The gas figure rests on EIA’s residential natural gas price, converted at about 1,037 Btu per cubic foot. Gas rates vary by utility and by season, so check the rate sheet from yours before you lean hard on any single number.
The gap is also modest. A heat pump at the label minimum runs within reach of a high-efficiency furnace, and a unit that beats the minimum narrows the difference further. If gas service already reaches the house, the furnace is the cheaper system to run, and a heat pump has to justify itself through cooling, a coming replacement, or a dual-fuel plan.
What each option costs to run in Nebraska
| System | Efficiency used | Cost per million Btu delivered |
|---|---|---|
| Natural gas furnace | 97% AFUE | $11.33 |
| Heat pump | 8.1 HSPF2 (seasonal COP about 2.4) | $15.93 |
| Electric resistance | 100% efficient | $37.81 |
These figures were computed from EIA residential prices, ENERGY STAR efficiencies, and EIA conversions of 3,412 Btu per kilowatt-hour and about 1,037 Btu per cubic foot of gas. The electricity price behind them is 12.90 cents per kWh, the average residential price year-to-date through July in EIA’s Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.B. It is a statewide average, so your own utility and rate plan will differ. Use it to compare fuels, not to predict your bill.
Efficiency matters as much as the fuel price because you are buying heat, not kilowatt-hours or cubic feet. A kilowatt-hour carries 3,412 Btu, and a resistance heater turns all of it into heat and not a Btu more. That is why electric baseboard lands at $37.81 even though it is “100% efficient.” A heat pump moves heat instead of making it, so each kWh yields roughly 2.4 times as much heat over a season. A 97% furnace, meanwhile, loses very little up the flue. Each fuel has its own price per Btu, and efficiency decides how much of that Btu reaches your rooms.
The heat pump line uses the ENERGY STAR minimum for a ducted split system. A ductless system must reach 8.5 HSPF2 to earn the same label, because it has no duct losses and starts with an advantage. What HSPF2 Measures, and Why Ductless Asks for More covers how to read those ratings.
Compare cost per million Btu delivered, never the price per kWh against the price per cubic foot.
How cold it gets, and what that does to a heat pump
Winter works hard here. Omaha Eppley Airfield, the reference station, averages about 5,833 heating degree days a year (base 65°F) in NOAA’s 1991-2020 normals. That figure adds up, day by day, how far the average temperature sat below 65°F. Twice the degree days means roughly twice the fuel for the same house, so Nebraska’s long heating season matters a great deal to any running-cost comparison.
The coldest month has a mean daily minimum of 15.2°F at the same station. That is an average low, not a record, so individual nights run well below it. Other parts of the state will not match Omaha’s numbers exactly, and western Nebraska can differ.
The $15.93 heat pump figure uses a seasonal efficiency. A heat pump’s efficiency drops in deep cold, so on the coldest nights it uses more electricity per Btu delivered than that average suggests. In those weeks the gap with gas is probably wider than $4.60. A backup carries the worst nights: electric resistance strips inside the air handler, or a gas furnace in a dual-fuel setup. Resistance backup is the costly option in the table above, so a house that leans on it often will see the savings shrink. How Cold Is Too Cold for a Heat Pump goes deeper on performance at low temperatures.
A farmhouse with leaky windows and a 1950s addition will spend far more on any system than a tight newer ranch. Air sealing and insulation shift the whole table. They cut the Btu you need, and every fuel gets cheaper to run.
Treat the heat pump figure as a seasonal average, not a January number, and plan the backup for the coldest nights before you buy.
What homes in Nebraska already heat with
The Residential Energy Consumption Survey from EIA (2020, state tables) shows what Nebraska homes actually use. Furnaces are the main equipment in 83% of homes and central heat pumps in 6%. By fuel, natural gas heats 69% and electricity 24%. Those shares describe what was installed, which mostly reflects which fuel was cheap and available when houses were built. They are not a recommendation.
The survey does not publish a figure for steam or hot-water boilers, because the estimate was suppressed as unreliable. It reports none for fuel oil or kerosene, and propane is suppressed as well. That does not mean no Nebraska home heats that way. It means the survey does not publish a number. These are also state shares, not a count for your county.
For the choice, two situations stand out. A house with a gas line already has the cheaper-to-run fuel, and the furnace is the default. A house without gas changes the comparison to heat pump against resistance (or propane, whose price is not in the figures here), and the heat pump at $15.93 beats resistance at $37.81. Gas furnace figures matter less there.
A boiler house is a different conversion altogether. Radiators and hot-water pipes mean there is no duct system to reuse, so swapping in a heat pump usually means adding ductwork or going ductless. Ductless or Central sorts out that decision. For a broader look at local heating choices, see Heating a Home in Nebraska.
No gas line means the comparison is heat pump against resistance, and the heat pump is the clear winner.
When the other choice wins
Cheaper to run does not always mean the right call. Several situations favor the heat pump even with gas at the curb, and a few favor keeping what you have.
- No gas service. Running a new gas line costs money and may not be available at all. Without gas, the heat pump is the economical electric choice.
- Air conditioning needs. Omaha averages about 1,294 cooling degree days a year, so summers demand real cooling. A heat pump heats and cools with one system, and ENERGY STAR sets 15.2 SEER2 as the cooling minimum. A furnace still needs a separate air conditioner.
- Dual fuel. A heat pump handles mild weather efficiently and a gas furnace takes the coldest nights. It pairs the better efficiency of milder days with gas for the deep cold.
- An old system with years left. A furnace that still works costs nothing to buy. Replacing it early only pays if the repair bills or efficiency loss justify it.
On that last point, Repairing a Furnace or Replacing It lays out when a repair makes sense. A $4.60 difference per million Btu will not pay for early retirement of a working system on its own.
SEER2 measures cooling and HSPF2 measures heating, so compare the same letter across two units. For a house that needs both jobs done, add the cooling benefit to the heating side of the ledger before picking a winner.
Common questions
Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Nebraska?
Not on running cost. At average residential prices, a 97% AFUE gas furnace delivers heat for $11.33 per million Btu against $15.93 for a heat pump at 8.1 HSPF2. Equipment cost and cooling can change the overall picture.
Will a heat pump keep up with a Nebraska winter?
Omaha’s coldest month has a mean daily minimum of 15.2°F, and efficiency drops in deep cold. Most systems pair the heat pump with a backup, either resistance strips or a furnace, for the coldest nights.
Is electric baseboard worth it?
It is the most expensive way to heat here, at $37.81 per million Btu delivered. It makes sense mainly for small spaces or rooms where installing other equipment is impractical.
Does the ENERGY STAR label guarantee low bills?
No. The label sets minimums, 8.1 HSPF2 for ducted systems and 8.5 for non-ducted, and says nothing about your house. Insulation, air leaks and ductwork shape the bill as much as the equipment does.