In Wyoming, a 97% efficient natural gas furnace costs less to run than a heat pump. The gap is $5.55 per million Btu at average residential prices. The heat pump still beats electric baseboard by a wide margin, and it cools the house in summer too. Which one wins in a particular home depends on gas service, how cold the nights get, and the age of the old system.
The short answer for Wyoming
Start with the numbers. Delivering one million Btu of heat to a house costs $11.67 with a natural gas furnace at 97% AFUE, $17.22 with a heat pump at 8.1 HSPF2 (a seasonal COP of about 2.4), and $40.89 with electric resistance such as baseboard. Those figures are computed from EIA residential prices, ENERGY STAR efficiencies, and EIA energy conversions. By that math, the gas furnace is the cheapest to run here, $5.55 less per million Btu than the heat pump.
Read them for what they are. This is running cost on the same unit of heat, fuel against fuel. It is not a yearly bill, because a yearly bill depends on the size of the house, how tight it is, and how warm you keep it. It is not the price of the equipment either, and installation costs can change the long-term picture.
If a gas line already serves the house, the furnace is the cheaper system to run, and the heat pump has to earn its place through cooling or the lack of gas. The sections below cover what changes that answer.
What each option costs to run in Wyoming
| System | Efficiency used | Cost per million Btu delivered |
|---|---|---|
| Natural gas furnace | 97% AFUE | $11.67 |
| Heat pump | 8.1 HSPF2 (seasonal COP about 2.4) | $17.22 |
| Electric resistance (baseboard) | 100% efficient | $40.89 |
The electricity side comes from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Its Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.B, puts the average residential price at 13.95 cents per kWh, a year-to-date figure through July. That is a statewide average. Your utility and rate plan may differ, so use it to compare fuels, not to predict your bill.
The gas side uses EIA’s average residential natural gas price, converted at about 1,037 Btu per cubic foot. The price itself is not among the verified figures here, so look up the current rate on a gas bill or ask the local utility. Electricity converts at 3,412 Btu per kWh.
Efficiency matters as much as the fuel price because you pay for the energy that goes in, not the heat that comes out. A kWh run through baseboard delivers 3,412 Btu of heat, no more. The same kWh through a heat pump moves roughly 2.4 times that into the house, at the seasonal average used here. A 97% furnace turns nearly every Btu of gas into room heat. Electricity costs more per Btu than gas, and the heat pump’s multiplier closes most of that gap but not all of it.
One more detail for shoppers. ENERGY STAR asks 8.5 HSPF2 of a non-ducted split system and 8.1 of a ducted one, because ductless units have no duct losses and must do better to earn the same label. The 8.1 used above is the ducted minimum, so a ductless unit that meets 8.5 would sit a little lower than $17.22. Our breakdown of what HSPF2 measures, and why ductless asks for more explains the rating.
Before deciding, put your own gas rate and your own electric rate into the same dollars-per-million-Btu math.
How cold it gets, and what that does to a heat pump
Cheyenne, the reference station here, logs about 6,959 heating degree days a year (base 65°F), according to NOAA’s 1991-2020 Climate Normals. A degree day adds up how far the day’s mean temperature sat below 65°F, so twice the degree days means roughly twice the fuel for the same house. A heating season that long is a serious one.
The coldest month tells the same story from another angle. The mean daily minimum in the coldest month is 18.1°F, well below freezing, and that is an average of the lows, not the worst night. Cheyenne is also one station. A mountain county in the same state can run far colder, so treat these numbers as a reference point, not a promise for your address.
For a heat pump, this is the stress test. The $17.22 figure uses a seasonal COP of about 2.4, an average across the whole heating season, so it is a fair baseline, not a ceiling for every February night. As outdoor air gets colder, efficiency drops, and the system delivers less heat per kWh just when the house wants the most. In a mild state, a heat pump barely leaves its efficient range. In Wyoming it spends real time outside it.
That is why backup matters. Resistance strips built into the unit, or an existing furnace, carry the coldest nights, and the electricity they use costs the $40.89 rate in the table, not $17.22. The more hours a winter spends in deep cold, the more the average slides toward the expensive end. Our guide to how cold is too cold for a heat pump goes through how the drop works and what to ask about low-temperature performance.
In Wyoming, treat a heat pump as a system with a backup for the coldest nights, and do not count on it alone to carry the house through the deepest cold.
What homes in Wyoming already heat with
The Energy Information Administration’s 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey shows what Wyoming homes use today. By equipment, furnaces serve 68% of homes and steam or hot-water boilers 9%. By fuel, natural gas heats 71%, electricity 18%, and propane 8%. The survey publishes no figure for fuel oil or kerosene (none reported) and none for central heat pumps (the estimate was suppressed as unreliable). Neither means zero, only that no solid number is available.
These are statewide shares, not a count for your county, and they are not a recommendation. In a state where gas heats seven homes in ten, a gas furnace is usually already in the basement, and the comparison in this article applies to those homes directly.
A house without a gas line changes the math. For an electric-heat home, the heat pump at $17.22 against baseboard at $40.89 is the comparison that counts, and it is not close. For a propane home, the gas figure does not apply. Propane prices are not among the verified numbers here, so get a current quote from a supplier and run the same dollars-per-million-Btu comparison.
A boiler house is a different conversion. Hot-water radiators have no ducts, so a central ducted heat pump has nowhere to put its air. Ductless units fit these houses more naturally. For the wider picture of local fuels and climate, see heating a home in Wyoming.
Find out what your house already has, gas line, ducts, or radiators, before comparing anything else, because that sets the real options.
When the other choice wins
The cheaper-to-run furnace is not always the right call. Three situations tip toward the heat pump even at the higher running cost.
- No gas service. Without a gas line, the furnace is not on the table. The choice becomes heat pump, resistance, or propane, and the heat pump beats resistance by a wide margin.
- An air conditioner near the end of its life. A heat pump heats and cools with one machine, so replacing both with one unit can make more sense than replacing two.
- A house that wants a mix of both. A heat pump for most of the season with the furnace as backup keeps the cheap gas heat for the deepest cold.
On cooling, Cheyenne’s 1991-2020 normals show about 398 cooling degree days a year, which is modest. Air conditioning is a smaller part of the story here than in a hot state, so summer is a bonus for a heat pump, not the main reason to buy one. If the house has never had central air and never needed it, the cooling case is weak.
The dual-fuel setup suits Wyoming’s long, cold season well. The heat pump handles the mild shoulder months, and the furnace takes over when outdoor temperatures drop. Compare ducted and ductless layouts in ductless or central.
The opposite case is an old furnace with years left. The running-cost gap favors keeping it, and a repair that is small against replacement usually settles the question. Our guide on repairing a furnace or replacing it lays out how to judge that.
Keep a working gas furnace until it truly needs replacing, and add a heat pump when you need cooling, have no gas, or want a dual-fuel system.
Common questions
Is a heat pump cheaper to run than electric baseboard in Wyoming?
Yes. At average residential prices, the heat pump at 8.1 HSPF2 costs $17.22 per million Btu delivered, against $40.89 for baseboard. The gap comes from efficiency: the heat pump moves heat instead of simply converting electricity into it.
Will a heat pump keep a Wyoming home warm in winter?
Often, with backup. Cheyenne’s coldest month averages a daily low of 18.1°F, and the efficiency drops as the air gets colder. Resistance strips or a furnace usually carry the coldest nights, and colder mountain counties lean on that backup more.
Does a ductless unit need a higher rating than a ducted one?
For the ENERGY STAR label, yes: 8.5 HSPF2 for non-ducted split systems and 8.1 for ducted ones. Ductless systems avoid duct losses, so they have to be more efficient to earn the same badge.
Do these figures tell me my annual heating bill?
No. They compare fuels on one unit of delivered heat, using statewide average prices. Your bill depends on the size and insulation of the house, your utility’s rates, and how much of the winter your system runs.