Heat Pump or Gas Furnace in Virginia: Which Costs Less to Run?

In Virginia, a gas furnace costs less to run than a heat pump, but the gap is small. A few things about the house can erase it or flip it, and the sections below cover each one.

The short answer for Virginia

At average residential prices, one million Btu of heat delivered to the house costs $17.04 with a natural gas furnace at 95% AFUE. A heat pump at 8.1 HSPF2 (seasonal COP about 2.4) costs $20.78. Electric resistance, such as baseboard at 100% efficiency, costs $49.33. These numbers come from EIA residential prices for electricity and natural gas, ENERGY STAR efficiencies and EIA energy conversions.

That makes the verdict simple: the gas furnace is cheaper to run by $3.74 per million Btu. The heat pump, in turn, sits far below baseboard heat.

Be clear about what the comparison covers. It is the cost of running each system on the same unit of heat. It is not a yearly bill, because that depends on the size of the house, its insulation and the winter. It also says nothing about what the equipment costs to buy and install.

The gap is $3.74 on a base of about $17, so it matters most in a large, leaky house that burns a lot of fuel and matters least in a tight, small one. Neither system is a bad choice at these prices. Getting the climate, the existing equipment and the cooling needs right matters more than the fuel difference.

What each option costs to run in Virginia

The electricity behind these figures averages 16.83 cents per kWh. That is the residential price, year-to-date through July, from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.B. The gas side uses the EIA’s average residential natural gas price for Virginia, converted at about 1,037 Btu per cubic foot. Both are statewide averages. Your utility and rate plan will differ, so use them to compare fuels and to estimate, then check your own bill.

Why does efficiency matter as much as the fuel price?

A kilowatt-hour carries 3,412 Btu. Baseboard heat turns all of it into heat, so you pay full price for every Btu. A heat pump moves heat that already exists outdoors, and at a seasonal COP of about 2.4 it delivers roughly two and a half times the heat that the electricity alone would. A furnace at 95% AFUE sends 95 cents of every fuel dollar into the house and the rest up the flue. Cheap fuel burned inefficiently can lose to pricier fuel used well, and that is why electricity at 16.83 cents still lands within reach of gas.

The 8.1 HSPF2 used above is the ENERGY STAR minimum for ducted split systems and single-package units. For non-ducted split systems the bar is 8.5. A ductless unit has no duct losses, so it starts with an advantage and has to be better to earn the same label. When you compare two units, match the letters: HSPF2 for heating, SEER2 for cooling. For more on the rating, see What HSPF2 Measures, and Why Ductless Asks for More.

How cold it gets, and what that does to a heat pump

How many heating degree days does Virginia have?

Heating degree days add up, for every day of the year, how far the mean temperature sat below 65°F. At Oceana NAS in the Virginia Beach area, NOAA’s 1991-2020 normals show about 3,424 heating degree days a year and about 1,546 cooling degree days. That is a long, mild heating season with a real cooling season next to it. The coldest month there has a mean daily minimum of 31.6°F, only a hair under freezing.

That is one coastal station. A mountain county in the same state can run far colder, with more degree days and more nights well below freezing. For when the season starts and ends where you live, see the heating season in Virginia.

What happens to a heat pump on the coldest nights?

The $20.78 figure uses a seasonal efficiency, an average across the whole winter. In deep cold a heat pump’s efficiency drops, and a backup carries the coldest nights, either electric resistance strips or a furnace. Resistance strips cost $49.33 per million Btu, so every hour they run pulls the average up. How low a given unit can go and still carry the house is covered in How Cold Is Too Cold for a Heat Pump.

Where winters look like the coastal normals, the unit spends most of the season in its efficient range, and the seasonal figure is a fair guide. In the colder western and mountain parts of the state, treat $20.78 as the optimistic case and budget for backup heat. Ask installers to size the system for your county’s design temperature, and ask how much of the load the backup would carry.

What homes in Virginia already heat with

The EIA’s 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey gives these state shares for main heating equipment: furnaces 56%, central heat pumps 27%, steam or hot-water boilers 4%. By fuel, electricity leads at 50%, natural gas follows at 36%, propane is at 5% and fuel oil or kerosene at 4%. These are statewide shares from a national survey, not a count for your county. They show what was installed, and so which fuel looked cheap when each house was built.

Half of Virginia homes already heat with electricity, so a heat pump is a familiar swap here. Most homes with a furnace have ducts, which is the most expensive part of a conversion. If your house has ducts and no gas line, compare a heat pump with baseboard or propane quotes, because the $17.04 gas figure does not apply to you. Against resistance heat, the heat pump at $20.78 is the clear winner. For propane or oil, get a current per-gallon price from your supplier and run the same comparison.

A house with a boiler and radiators is a different conversion. With no ducts, the usual route is ductless units, and Ductless or Central walks through that choice. For more on how Virginia homes stay warm, see Heating a Home in Virginia.

When the other choice wins

When does a heat pump beat a cheaper-to-run furnace?

The furnace wins on running cost, but several situations favor the heat pump anyway. The first is a house with no gas service, where the furnace is not really an option unless the utility runs a line. The second is a house that needs air conditioning. Oceana NAS sees about 1,546 cooling degree days a year, and a heat pump cools as well as heats. If the central air conditioner is near the end of its life too, one heat pump can replace both machines. Gas then has to justify a furnace and a separate condenser.

What about dual fuel, or an old system with years left?

A dual-fuel setup pairs a heat pump with a gas furnace as backup. The heat pump runs through the mild stretches, and the furnace takes over on the coldest nights. That suits a house with a gas line in the colder western part of the state, where a heat pump alone would lean on resistance strips at $49.33 per million Btu.

A furnace with years of life left usually should stay. A $3.74 per million Btu difference rarely pays for replacing working equipment. Start with the repair-or-replace questions in Repairing a Furnace or Replacing It. Whichever system you keep, air sealing and added attic insulation cut the number of Btu you buy (see insulation for Virginia homes), and that shrinks the gap between the two systems in dollars.

Common questions

Is a heat pump cheaper to run than a gas furnace in Virginia?

No. At average residential prices, the gas furnace costs $17.04 per million Btu delivered and the heat pump $20.78, a difference of $3.74. That compares fuels on the same unit and is not a yearly bill.

How does a heat pump compare with electric baseboard?

The heat pump is much cheaper to run. Baseboard heat costs $49.33 per million Btu, against $20.78 for a heat pump at 8.1 HSPF2.

Will a Virginia heat pump need backup heat?

Often, on the coldest nights. At Virginia Beach the coldest month averages a daily low of 31.6°F, which is easy on a heat pump. Mountain counties run colder, and a backup of resistance strips or a furnace usually carries those nights.

Does a ductless heat pump need a higher rating?

For the ENERGY STAR label, yes. Non-ducted split systems must reach 8.5 HSPF2, while ducted systems need 8.1. Both also need 15.2 SEER2 for cooling.