Against electric baseboard, a heat pump wins easily in Alberta. Against a gas furnace, the answer depends on one number this article can’t supply: the gas rate on your own utility bill. The comparison below shows how to set the two side by side, what Alberta’s cold does to the math, and where the cheaper system still isn’t the right pick.
The short answer for Alberta
On the Calgary prices in our data, a heat pump delivers a million Btu of heat for C$28.27. Electric resistance heat (baseboard, 100% efficient) costs C$67.12 for the same million Btu. That leaves the heat pump C$38.85 cheaper per million Btu, a gap of more than half the baseboard cost. The figures are computed from the Hydro-Quebec electricity price comparison, ENERGY STAR efficiencies and standard EIA energy conversions, and all are in Canadian dollars.
Natural gas is the missing piece. The data behind these figures carries no Alberta gas price, so there is no honest gas-furnace number to print. The price has to come from your local gas utility, because it varies with your provider, your contract and the month you look at it.
Two limits apply to every figure here. This is running cost for the same unit of delivered heat, not a yearly bill, and your bill depends on the size of your house, its insulation and how you set the thermostat. It is also not the price of the equipment or the installation, which is a separate calculation.
The practical move: take the per-unit rate on your gas bill, convert it to cost per million Btu delivered after furnace losses, and compare it with C$28.27 before choosing a system. If the furnace comes in higher, the heat pump runs cheaper. If it comes in lower, gas keeps the running-cost edge, and the choice moves to cooling, backup and equipment age.
What each option costs to run in Alberta
| System | Efficiency used | Cost per million Btu delivered |
|---|---|---|
| Electric resistance (baseboard) | 100% | C$67.12 |
| Heat pump | 8.1 HSPF2 (seasonal COP about 2.4) | C$28.27 |
| Gas furnace | Efficiency is on the furnace label | No gas price in our data; use your utility’s rate |
The electricity price behind both rows is 22.90 cents per kWh in Canadian dollars. It comes from Hydro-Quebec’s comparison of North American city rates, which lists average residential prices before taxes for 1,000 kWh a month, with rates in effect in April 2025, measured in Calgary (Hydro-Quebec, Comparaison des prix de l’électricité). It is a city average before taxes, useful for comparing fuels but never a stand-in for your actual bill.
The gas row stays open on purpose. Our conversions treat a cubic foot of natural gas as holding about 1,037 Btu. A furnace then delivers only the share its efficiency rating allows, so a utility rate in dollars per cubic foot, or per whatever unit your bill uses, can be converted once you know the rating on the furnace label.
Efficiency matters as much as the fuel price because a heat pump moves heat instead of making it. A seasonal COP of about 2.4 means roughly 2.4 units of heat for every unit of electricity, while baseboard returns exactly one. Both rows use the same 22.90 cents per kWh, so the whole C$38.85 gap comes from efficiency alone. A gas furnace follows the same logic in reverse. A cheap fuel loses ground if the equipment wastes a lot of it, and an expensive fuel can still win if the equipment is efficient.
The heat pump figure assumes 8.1 HSPF2, the ENERGY STAR minimum for ducted split systems and single-package units. ENERGY STAR asks 8.5 of non-ducted systems, because they have no duct losses and must do better to earn the same label. What HSPF2 Measures, and Why Ductless Asks for More covers that rating in detail. Compare quotes on HSPF2 for heating and keep SEER2, the cooling rating, separate. Those are minimums to earn the label, not what any particular unit delivers in your house.
How cold it gets, and what that does to a heat pump
Calgary averages about 4,979 heating degree days a year below 18 °C, according to Environment and Climate Change Canada’s 1981-2010 climate normals for the Calgary International A station. Degree days turn climate into fuel demand, so a place with twice the degree days needs roughly twice the fuel for the same house. Almost 5,000 is a long, hard heating season.
That figure is not comparable to a U.S. one, for three reasons. The base is 18 °C (64.4 °F) rather than 65 °F, the unit is Celsius degree-days, and the climate period runs 1981-2010 rather than 1991-2020. Treat the number as a statement about Calgary’s own winters, not as one half of a cross-border scoreboard.
The coldest month shows the other side of the problem. The mean daily minimum there is -13.2 °C. That is an average of the nightly lows, not a record, so some nights run colder, and those nights are the ones that test a heat pump.
The C$28.27 figure uses a seasonal efficiency, an average over a whole winter. In deep cold a heat pump’s efficiency drops, and the COP of about 2.4 is lower on the coldest nights and higher on mild ones. A backup carries the worst stretches, either electric resistance strips built into the system or a gas furnace working alongside it. Whenever the backup runs, the home is paying something closer to the baseboard cost for those hours.
With thousands of heating degree days behind it, the heat pump still saves money against resistance heat, but the savings come from the whole season and not from every hour. How Cold Is Too Cold for a Heat Pump goes into how performance changes as temperatures fall. Ask any installer how the system handles the coldest nights, and what the backup is, before you rely on the seasonal number.
What homes in Alberta already heat with
Statistics Canada’s 2023 survey of primary heating systems (table 38-10-0286) puts forced-air furnaces in 78% of Alberta homes and boilers with hot-water or steam radiators in 7%. Those are province-wide shares, not a count for any one town, and they describe what was installed, which says which fuel was cheap and available when the houses were built. They are not a recommendation.
The survey does not publish figures for heat pumps, electric baseboard or heating stoves, because those estimates were suppressed as unreliable. That is different from zero. Some Alberta homes surely heat that way, but the data can’t say how many.
The 78% matters because a house with a furnace already has ducts, and a ducted heat pump can often use them. A home with ducts and a gas line can price both options on equal footing. Ductless or Central sorts out which format suits which house.
Two other cases change the comparison. A house with no gas line has no furnace to compare against, so the real choice is the heat pump versus electric resistance, and the C$38.85 gap per million Btu is the number that matters. A boiler house is a different conversion altogether. With no ductwork, a heat pump means either adding ducts or going ductless, so the gas rate matters less than what the installation involves.
Start with what is already in the walls: ducts, a gas line, or radiators. That decides which comparison applies before efficiency enters the discussion. A wider look at the options lives in Heating a Home in Alberta.
When the other choice wins
The cheaper-to-run system is not always the right one. If your gas rate, after furnace losses, comes in under C$28.27 per million Btu delivered, gas keeps the edge on running cost. Natural gas pricing has a history of moving, so a one-time comparison ages quickly, and rechecking against a fresh bill is worth the ten minutes.
Cold nights are the second case. A heat pump’s efficiency falls as the temperature drops, so a home that needs deep-winter reliability may prefer a dual-fuel setup, with the heat pump handling milder weather and a gas furnace taking over in the worst cold. The heat pump covers a large share of the season cheaply, and the furnace covers the nights it can’t. The cost is two systems to maintain.
Cooling points the other way. A heat pump air-conditions as well as heats, so a household that was going to buy central air anyway is really comparing one machine against two. Our data carries no cooling degree day count for Calgary, so there is no figure for how much cooling a house needs, but the logic holds for anyone planning to cool. For those who wouldn’t, that advantage disappears.
The last case is a working furnace. An older system with years of life left is cheaper to keep running than to replace, even when the replacement would cost less per million Btu. Repairing a Furnace or Replacing It lays out when repair stops making sense. If your furnace works and your gas rate is low, a heat pump can wait for the furnace’s end of life, or be added as a partner.
Common questions
Is a heat pump cheaper to run than a gas furnace in Alberta?
That depends on your gas rate, which our data doesn’t carry. A heat pump costs C$28.27 per million Btu delivered, against C$67.12 for electric baseboard. Convert your gas bill to the same basis and compare.
Can I use these figures to estimate my yearly bill?
No. They compare fuels on the same unit of heat. Your bill depends on your house’s size, insulation and thermostat habits, and the figures are city averages before taxes.
Does a heat pump still work in Calgary’s coldest weather?
It runs, but less efficiently. The coldest month’s mean daily minimum is -13.2 °C, and some nights are colder. A backup, either resistance strips or a furnace, carries those nights.
What HSPF2 rating should I look for?
ENERGY STAR sets minimums of 8.5 HSPF2 for non-ducted split systems and 8.1 for ducted split and single-package units. They are minimums to earn the label, not a recommendation for a specific house. Details are on the ENERGY STAR air-source heat pump criteria page.